The Donald Trump administration’s demand for a "performance-based" compliance model—coupled with maintaining the naval blockade until Tehran demonstrates verifiable de-escalation—places Iran’s political leadership and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in a strategic dilemma.
Accepting Washington’s conditions without prior guarantees of sanctions relief is viewed in Tehran as capitulation; on the other hand, pushing military tension risks provoking direct CENTCOM retaliation against infrastructure on Iranian soil.
Given this impasse, Tehran’s behavior could unfold across three main scenarios:
Scenario 1: "Continued Asymmetric Attrition" (Most Likely Scenario)
In this scenario, Iran avoids direct confrontation with the U.S. Navy but utilizes hybrid warfare tactics and Sea Denial capabilities to keep the economic and reputational cost of the American presence unsustainable.
IRGC Actions: Use of Fast Attack Craft (FACs), selective and quiet sea mining outside the main channels, and suicide drone (USV/UAV) attacks attributed to non-state actors or lacking formal identification.
Target Focus: Oil tankers belonging to U.S. regional allies (such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia) rather than U.S.-flagged vessels, seeking to fracture the coalition supporting Washington.
Strategic Objective: Keep maritime insurance rates (P&I Clubs) at peak levels, demonstrating that CENTCOM's presence is incapable of guaranteeing true energy flow security without Tehran's consent.
Scenario 2: "Tactical Adherence to the 60-Day Trial with Safeguards" (Pragmatic Scenario)
Facing the risk of internal economic collapse and pressure from strategic commercial partners (such as China, the primary buyer of Iranian oil), Iran accepts the trial period mediated by Oman.
IRGC Actions: Temporary suspension of interdictions under the new Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) and a freeze on toll or fee collection in the navigation channel.
Required Counterpart: Insistence that gradual U.S. sanctions relief (waivers) be granted under strict biweekly milestones, including financial authorization for oil exported from terminals like Kharg Island.
Strategic Objective: Gain immediate financial breathing room without relinquishing the legal sovereignty framework Iran seeks to consolidate over the strait in the long term.
Scenario 3: "Saturation Escalation and Effective Closure" (High-Risk Scenario)
Should Washington intensify sanctions or conduct preemptive strikes against IRGC assets, Tehran could opt for a maximum-pressure response to force a global energy crisis.
IRGC Actions: Total interdiction of the chokepoint through massive mining, shutting down bottleneck areas with shore-based and island-fortified anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) (such as on Qeshm and Hormuz islands), and strikes against oil platforms and terminals across the Persian Gulf.
Global Impact: Immediate surge in global crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices, along with a complete shutdown of commercial shipping for weeks.
Strategic Objective: Trigger a global inflationary crisis that forces the international community and U.S. public opinion to pressure the Trump administration for an immediate military withdrawal.
Scenario Comparison Table
Probability :
Scenario 1: High
Scenario 2: Medium
Scenario 3: Low
Dimension: Main Trigger
Scenario 1: Rigid maintenance of the blockade without prior U.S. concessions.
Scenario 2: Tactical Adherence (60 Days): Asymmetric Attrition: Issuance of operational waivers and diplomatic pressure from China/Oman.
Scenario 3: Saturation Escalation: Direct U.S. attack on Iranian land-based infrastructure.
Dimension: Oil Impact
Scenario 1: Asymmetric Attrition: Volatility and constant risk premium ($85–$100/barrel).
Scenario 2: Gradual stabilization and price decline.
Scenario 3: Saturation Escalation: Historical price spikes (above $130/barrel).
Dimension: Risk of All-Out War
Scenario 1: Asymmetric Attrition: Moderate (risk of miscalculations at sea).
Scenario 2: Low.
Scenario 3: Saturation Escalation: Critically High.
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