US-Iran Memorandum Expiry Escalates Tensions, Paralyzes Hormuz Traffic, and Raises Conflict Alert

US-Iran Memorandum Expiry Escalates Tensions, Paralyzes Hormuz Traffic, and Raises Conflict Alert

The expiration of the 60-day deadline established by the provisional Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in June between the United States and Iran came to an end this Monday (17) without the formalization of an extension or a definitive peace treaty. The scenario marks a new and critical escalation of geopolitical and commercial instability in the Middle East.

With the collapse of the pact, commercial vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz recorded a near-total paralysis over the past weekend, reflecting an atmosphere of maximum tension in the wake of recent incidents involving oil tankers in the region. The central dispute intensified after US President Donald Trump reaffirmed that Washington's strategic objective remains focused on curbing Iran's nuclear advancement and reiterated his intention to declare the strait as territory under US jurisdiction.

The statement drew a sharp reaction from Tehran. The high military command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) signaled a shift toward a more offensive deterrence approach, warning of potential "strategic surprises," while the Iranian Army established financial bounties for US soldiers in the event of ground operations.

On the diplomatic front, the situation remains stagnant. The Iranian government denies direct negotiations for the renewal of the agreement with Washington, blaming the US for violations of the previous pact. In parallel, Tehran announced it has reached a technical and security understanding with the Sultanate of Oman to outline a new commercial shipping route map, although it stresses that the waterway will remain under strict restriction until essential political and economic demands are met.

While leaders such as Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declare political and military victory over Washington's failure to achieve its core campaign objectives, international analysts warn that the absence of permanent post-MoU dialogue channels drastically increases risks to global energy security and regional stability.